基于密度峰值聚类理念的大群体应急模糊决策模型
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上海大学

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C934

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国家自然科学基金项目;教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目;上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究领域重点项目


A Large Group Emergency Fuzzy Decision-making Method Based on the Theory of Clustering by Fast Search and Find of Density Peaks
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Shanghai University

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    摘要:

    针对决策者权重未知情形下的重大突发事件应急决策问题,提出了一种SFN-CFSFDP-Borda-MULTIMOORA模型。首先,采用球形模糊数描述决策者对应急备选方案的评价信息;其次,基于密度峰值聚类理念对大决策群体进行聚类;然后,提出可扩展的群体综合冲突优化模型,根据聚类结果进行冲突测度,求解决策者及聚集的权重并实现意见融合;再次,利用改进Borda -MULTIMOORA法决策最优方案;最后,以黑龙江东湖水库事件为例,对模型的有效性与实用性给予验证。结果表明,SFN-CFSFDP-Borda- MULTIMOORA 模型充分考虑了决策者的心理特征,强化了在重大突发不确定情景下决策者的知识表达能力,同时明确了聚类中心的选择方法,达到了聚集内部差异小、聚集间差异大的聚类效果,通过考虑群体综合冲突及实际决策情形对决策者权重和聚集权重进行设置更符合实际,有效实现了群体冲突融合,并提高了决策效率,为重大突发事件大群体应急决策提供了理论支持。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the major emergency decision-making problem when the weights of decision-makers are unknown, a SFN-CFSFDP-Borda-MULTIMOORA method is proposed. Firstly, Spherical fuzzy number is used to describe the evaluation information of experts on emergency alternatives. Secondly, the clustering method based on the theory of clustering by fast search and find of density peaks is used to cluster the large group experts. Then, according to the clustering results, the conflict is measured and an extensible multi-objective optimization model of group comprehensive conflict is constructed, the weights of experts and clusters are obtained and group conflicts are effectively reduced by solving the model. Thirdly, the optimal alternative is decided by Borda- MULTIMOORA method. Finally, taking Donghu Reservoir in Heilongjiang Province as an example, the effectiveness and practicability of the method are verified. The results show that the proposed method fully considers the psychological characteristics of experts, strengthens the knowledge expression ability of experts in major emergency scenarios, and clarifies the selection method of clustering centers, which achieves better clustering effect with small internal differences and large differences among clusters. Besides, it is more practical by considering the comprehensive conflicts of groups and actual decision-making situations to determine the weights of experts and clusters, which effectively reduces group conflicts, improves the efficiency of decision-making and provides support for the large group emergency decision-making of major emergencies.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-26
  • 最后修改日期:2021-08-23
  • 录用日期:2021-08-26
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-17
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