引用本文:徐选华,刘尚龙.考虑时间序列的动态大群体应急决策方法[J].控制与决策,2020,35(11):2609-2618
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考虑时间序列的动态大群体应急决策方法
徐选华,刘尚龙
(中南大学商学院,长沙410083)
摘要:
针对专家权重和属性权重未知、阶段权重未知且与时间序列有关的动态大群体应急决策问题,提出一种考虑时间序列的动态大群体应急决策方法.首先,提出一个考虑区间直觉模糊数犹豫度的距离公式,定义区间直觉模糊数贴近度,综合考虑贴近度和相似度,用模糊聚类法对大群体专家偏好信息进行聚类;其次,基于现有区间直觉模糊熵公式的不足,提出一个新的区间直觉模糊熵公式,基于此公式考虑专家之间知识水平的差异和各个阶段偏好信息不具遗传性等特点,计算得出专家在不同属性下的权重和属性在各阶段下的权重;再次,考虑时间序列对各阶段权重的影响,构建相对熵模型,对阶段权重进行合理确定,进而利用加权平均算子得到整个决策过程中各方案的综合决策偏好;然后,利用区间直觉模糊数的得分函数和精确函数对方案进行排序,选出最优方案;最后,通过与以往文献的方法对比分析验证所提出方法的有效性和优越性.
关键词:  时间序列  模糊熵  动态决策  大群体  应急决策
DOI:10.13195/j.kzyjc.2019.0088
分类号:C934
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71671189,71971217);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71790615,91846301).
Dynamic large group emergency decision-making method considering time series
XU Xuan-hua,LIU Shang-long
(School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a dynamic large group emergency decision-making method considering time series, aiming at the time-series related problem with unknown expert weight, attribute weight and stage weight. Firstly, a distance formula considering the hesitation degree of interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is proposed, and the approximation degree of interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is defined. Comprehensively considering the approximation degree and similarity, the preference information of large groups of experts is clustered using the fuzzy clustering method. Then, aiming at the shortage of the existing interval intuitionistic fuzzy entropy formula, a new interval intuitionistic fuzzy entropy formula is proposed. Based on this formula, considering the difference of knowledge level among experts and the non-heritability of preference information in each stage, the weights of experts under different attributes and that of attributes under different stages are calculated. Considering the influence of time series on the weight of each stage, the relative entropy model is constructed to determine the stage weights reasonably, and then the weighted average operator is used to obtain the comprehensive group preference of each program in the whole decision process. And the comprehensive group preferences of each scheme in the whole decision-making process are obtained by using the weighted average operator. The scheme is ranked by using the score function and the exact function of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy set, and the optimal scheme is selected. Finally, the validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified by comparing it with the methods in previous literatures.
Key words:  time series  fuzzy entropy  dynamic decision-making  large group  emergency decision-making

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