引用本文:陈可,黄燕霞,徐选华.基于突发事件相似度和区间一致性的复杂偏好大群体应急决策方法[J].控制与决策,2020,35(9):2215-2224
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基于突发事件相似度和区间一致性的复杂偏好大群体应急决策方法
陈可,黄燕霞,徐选华
(中南大学商学院,长沙410083)
摘要:
针对突发事件演化情景难以预测的问题,沿用基于相似案例分析的决策范式,提出一种突发事件事故等级生成方法.首先,运用案例库的规范化指标输入目标案例筛选出若干个参考案例,将参考案例的事故等级作为目标事件演化等级参考标准,当目标事件平均演化等级达到重大突发事件以上时启动大群体应急决策;其次,针对大群体犹豫模糊决策偏好矩阵存在一致性区间的问题,考虑区间一致性的均值和稳态,提出一种新的专家赋权方法;最后,通过案例表明所提出方法的有效性.
关键词:  突发事件相似度  区间一致性  大群体  复杂偏好  应急决策
DOI:10.13195/j.kzyjc.2018.1686
分类号:C934
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71671189);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71790615).
Complex preference large group emergency decision method based on emergencies similarity and interval consistency
CHEN Ke,HUANG Yan-xia,XU Xuan-hua
(School of Business,Central South University,Changsha410083,China)
Abstract:
In order to solve the difficult-to-prediction problem of emergency event evolutionary scenario, the decision paradigm based on similar case analysis is used to propose a method for generating severity degree of emergency events. Firstly, the standardized indexes are used to input the target case for finding similar cases, and filter out several similar cases as reference cases. The severity degree of reference cases is used to acquire the severity degree of the target event. Large-scale group emergency decision-making process is initiated when the average evolution level exceeds level 2. Then, aiming at the problem of the consistency interval existing in a hesitant fuzzy preference matrix, this paper proposes a new method considering the average value and steady state of interval consistency to distribute experts'weight. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Key words:  emergencies similarity  interval consistency  large group  complex preference  emergence decision-making

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