引用本文:郭金海,李军亮,杨雪,等.低渗透油井产能预测的灰建模[J].控制与决策,2019,34(11):2498-2504
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低渗透油井产能预测的灰建模
郭金海1, 李军亮2, 杨雪1, 杨锦伟3
(1. 长江大学信息与数学学院,湖北荆州434023;2. 长江大学石油工程学院,湖北荆州434023;3. 平顶山学院数学学院,河南平顶山467000)
摘要:
针对低渗透油井产能预测问题,分析低渗透油井渗流的力学机理,考虑启动压力梯度、应力敏感性和压裂增产措施的影响,建立油井产量模型.结合灰色特性建立油井产能预测灰色模型(WPGM(1,1)),推导出模型的参数求解公式和模型的求解算法.采用函数变换提高WPGM(1,1)模型的精度,并运用WPGM(1,1)模型预测低渗透油井的产量.实例分析表明,所提出的算法和模型均可行且有效.
关键词:  低渗透油井  产能预测  灰色模型  启动压力梯度  压裂增产
DOI:10.13195/j.kzyjc.2018.0370
分类号:N941.5
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(11871118).
Grey modeling based on productivity prediction of low permeability wells
GUO Jin-hai1,LI Jun-liang2,YANG Xue1,YANG Jin-wei3
(1. School of Information and Mathematics,Yangtze University,Jingzhou434023,China;2. School of Petroleum Engineering,Yangtze University,Jingzhou434023,China;3. School of Mathematics Science,Pingdingshan University,Pingdingshan467000,China)
Abstract:
The problem of the productivity prediction of the low permeability wells is considered. By analyzing the seepage flow mechanics mechanism of low permeability wells, and considering the factors of threshold pressure gradient(TPG), stress sensitivity and fracturing stimulation, the production model of low permeability wells is established. The grey model of well productivity prediction(WPGM(1,1)) is obtained by using the grey theory, also the formula of parameters solution and the algorithm of solution of the model are derived. The accuracy of WPGM(1,1) model is improved by function transformation, and the output of low permeability wells is predicted by using the WPGM(1,1) model. Numerical example analysis show that the proposed algorithm and model are feasible and effective.
Key words:  low permeability wells  productivity prediction  grey model  threshold pressure gradient  fracturing stimulation

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